Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
YES: 1¢ | Change: 0.0%
Lakers vs. Thunder
YES: 0¢ | Change: -12.4%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons
YES: 0¢ | Change: -40.5%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?
YES: 0¢ | Change: 0.0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
YES: 33¢ | Change: +1.0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
YES: 19¢ | Change: +1.7%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)
YES: 100¢ | Change: +49.5%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
YES: 97¢ | Change: +48.0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
YES: 1¢ | Change: +0.2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
YES: 10¢ | Change: +0.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
YES: 3¢ | Change: +0.3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
YES: 55¢ | Change: +1.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
YES: 28¢ | Change: +2.0%
Knicks vs. 76ers
YES: 49¢ | Change: -1.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YES: 22¢ | Change: -1.0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
YES: 4¢ | Change: -2.4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
YES: 86¢ | Change: +46.0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
YES: 100¢ | Change: 0.0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07?
Deep dives into prediction markets, trading strategies, market analysis, and the events shaping our world.
Prediction markets transform collective wisdom into probability. Learn how these platforms work, why they matter, and how to start reading market-implied odds on real-world events.
A contract at 73 cents means 73% probability. But there's more nuance to reading prediction market prices than simple conversion. Here's what experienced traders know.
Both involve wagering on outcomes, but prediction markets and sports betting serve fundamentally different purposes. Understanding the distinction matters for traders and regulators alike.
The mechanism by which trading activity transforms into probability estimates is both elegant and powerful. Here's the economic theory behind prediction market price formation.
Liquidity determines how much you can trust a prediction market price. Deep markets with tight spreads produce more reliable signals than thin ones. Here's why it matters.
Historical data shows prediction markets consistently produce more accurate election forecasts than traditional polling. The reasons reveal fundamental advantages of market-based information aggregation.
Monthly prediction market volume exploded from $1.2 billion to over $21 billion in less than a year. What drove this unprecedented growth and what does it mean for the industry?
The two dominant US prediction market platforms take fundamentally different approaches to regulation, technology, and user experience. Here's how they compare across every dimension that matters.
Algorithmic and AI-powered trading systems now account for a significant portion of prediction market volume. Their presence is changing liquidity, accuracy, and the competitive landscape for human traders.
Sophisticated investors increasingly monitor prediction market prices as leading indicators for traditional financial markets. Here's how event probabilities translate into actionable investment signals.
With midterm elections approaching, prediction markets are pricing in significant shifts in Congressional control. Here's a comprehensive analysis of what the odds tell us about November.
Prediction markets on Bitcoin price milestones offer a unique window into collective expectations about cryptocurrency's trajectory. Here's what current market prices imply about Bitcoin's future.
Hunch transforms prediction market data into an editorial experience. We believe everyone deserves access to the collective intelligence of markets, presented clearly and beautifully.
Every market on Hunch comes with an AI-generated editorial analysis. Here's how we build these briefs, what they contain, and how to use them as part of your information diet.
Prediction markets provide probability-weighted scenarios that traditional financial analysis cannot. Here's why adding market-implied probabilities to your toolkit improves investment decisions.
Prediction markets offer journalists real-time probability data that adds quantitative rigor to coverage of uncertain events. Here's how newsrooms are incorporating market data into their reporting.
Understanding order books is essential for reading prediction market depth and liquidity. Here's how buy and sell orders create the prices you see.
When the same event trades at different prices on different platforms, arbitrage opportunities emerge. Here's how to identify and understand them.
Calibration analysis reveals whether a market's prices truly reflect probabilities. Learn the methodology behind accuracy assessment.
Market makers provide the liquidity that makes prediction markets function. Understanding their role helps you interpret spreads and depth.
How do blockchain-based prediction markets determine outcomes? Oracles bridge the gap between real-world events and smart contract resolution.
The resolution process determines who gets paid. Understanding resolution criteria helps you avoid markets with ambiguous outcomes.
Volume and open interest tell different stories about market activity. Here's how to read both for better market intelligence.
Diversification principles apply to prediction markets too. Learn how to construct a balanced portfolio of event contracts.
Position sizing, correlation management, and drawdown limits are as important in prediction markets as in traditional trading.
How are prediction market gains taxed? The answer depends on the platform, contract type, and your trading frequency.
Decades of data reveal how well prediction markets perform across different event types, time horizons, and market conditions.
Prediction markets are not infallible. Examining their failures reveals important lessons about the limits of crowd wisdom.
Under what conditions do markets beat experts? The answer is more nuanced than either side typically acknowledges.
Hedge funds, family offices, and proprietary trading firms are entering prediction markets. Their presence is transforming liquidity and dynamics.
From CFTC oversight to state-level legislation, the regulatory environment for prediction markets is evolving rapidly.
Sports prediction markets differ from sportsbooks in structure and purpose. Here's how they're carving out a distinct niche.
Cognitive biases affect prediction market traders just as they affect all investors. Understanding these biases helps you read markets more accurately.
Markets systematically misprice tail risks. Here's why contracts on unlikely events deserve special scrutiny.
From AI integration to regulatory evolution, several forces are shaping the next chapter of prediction market development.
The mechanics of information incorporation reveal how quickly and efficiently prediction markets process breaking news.
Prediction markets on AI regulation provide probability estimates for policy outcomes that will shape the technology industry for decades.
Markets on climate policy outcomes help investors and policymakers understand the probability of regulatory action on emissions.
Prediction markets on Fed decisions provide cleaner probability signals than Fed Funds futures. Here's how to read them.
Sports prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks often show different odds. Understanding why reveals information about market efficiency.
Markets on cryptocurrency ETF approvals have been among the highest-volume contracts in the prediction market ecosystem.
From Mars missions to commercial space stations, prediction markets offer probability estimates on humanity's next steps in space.
Awards season prediction markets attract both entertainment insiders and data-driven forecasters. Their accuracy is remarkably high.
Prediction markets on geopolitical events provide quantitative risk assessment for events that traditional analysis struggles to probability-weight.
Markets on IPO timing and valuation help investors prepare for the next wave of public technology companies.
Prediction markets on Supreme Court decisions reveal how legal experts and court-watchers assess the probability of various rulings.
Markets on health events provide early warning signals and probability estimates for outcomes that affect public health policy.
Prediction markets on housing prices and mortgage rates offer forward-looking signals for the real estate industry.
Energy prediction markets complement traditional futures by offering binary outcomes on production decisions and price milestones.
A look behind the scenes at how Hunch collects, processes, and presents prediction market data from multiple sources.
The technical and editorial decisions behind Hunch, from data architecture to AI analysis to visual design.
Corporate strategists can use prediction market data to inform scenario planning, risk assessment, and competitive intelligence.
Prediction markets make probability estimates accessible to everyone, not just experts with expensive models and proprietary data.
How quickly and accurately do prediction markets incorporate new information? Research reveals they are among the most efficient information processors.
Prediction markets have evolved from gambling curiosities to serious intelligence tools used by governments, corporations, and researchers.
Internal prediction markets help companies make better decisions by aggregating employee knowledge without hierarchical distortion.
When probabilities are public and continuously updated, it changes how society processes uncertainty and makes collective decisions.
Researchers use prediction markets to study information aggregation, behavioral economics, and the limits of collective intelligence.
Should we allow markets on any event? The ethical boundaries of prediction markets raise important questions about commodifying uncertainty.
From AI integration to global regulation to new market types, the prediction market industry is poised for continued transformation.
Please enable JavaScript to use Hunch.