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Cavaliers vs. Pistons-40.5%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?33¢+1.0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?19¢+1.6%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)100¢+49.5%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)100¢+51.5%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?+0.1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?10¢+0.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?+0.5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?55¢+1.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?28¢+2.0%
Knicks vs. 76ers49¢-1.0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres84¢+44.0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?-2.5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?22¢-1.0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend100¢
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Cavaliers vs. Pistons-40.5%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?33¢+1.0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?19¢+1.6%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)100¢+49.5%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)100¢+51.5%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?+0.1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?10¢+0.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?+0.5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?55¢+1.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?28¢+2.0%
Knicks vs. 76ers49¢-1.0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres84¢+44.0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?-2.5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?22¢-1.0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend100¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07?100¢
Back to Markets
World

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

21.5%
Yes
78.5%
No
$26.3M
Total Volume
$1.0M
24h Volume
$0.62M
Liquidity

Probability Over Time

View Heat Map
02:12 AM02:23 AM02:38 AM02:51 AM03:05 AM03:25 AM03:37 AM03:45 AM03:53 AM04:02 AM04:12 AM04:21 AM04:34 AM0%25%50%75%100%

Hunch Brief

Hunch Market Brief: U.S. Inva

Hunch Contrarian

Click "Generate" for a contrarian analysis that challenges the market consensus with alternative perspectives.

Order Book Depth

Estimated from liquidity
PriceSize
20.5¢44,309
19.5¢34,481
18.5¢35,116
17.5¢33,726
16.5¢27,948
15.5¢22,197
14.5¢17,344
13.5¢13,875
PriceSize
22.5¢38,245
23.5¢32,767
24.5¢28,924
25.5¢29,931
26.5¢28,130
27.5¢24,616
28.5¢16,182
29.5¢17,811

Recent Trades

Simulated activity
SidePriceSizeTime
NO21.4¢6104:34 AM
YES22.1¢18704:31 AM
NO20.1¢31804:30 AM
NO19.6¢39904:30 AM
YES20.7¢30404:28 AM
NO21.0¢38804:27 AM
YES20.1¢16204:23 AM
NO22.9¢16004:25 AM
YES23.1¢48304:29 AM
NO21.5¢12004:22 AM

Price Alerts

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Market Details

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

StatusActive
End Date12/31/2026
Last Updated5/8/2026, 4:34:00 AM
View on Polymarket

Market Intelligence

Category

World

Market Sentiment

Strongly bearish

Liquidity Depth

Deep

Sources

Sources are provided for research purposes. Hunch aggregates data from public prediction markets.

Discussion

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