Every prediction market on Hunch is accompanied by two AI-generated analyses: the Hunch Brief and the Hunch Take. These are not generic summaries — they are structured analytical pieces that examine market data, identify key factors, and present reasoned perspectives on what the odds mean.
What Is a Hunch Brief?
The Hunch Brief is our primary analytical product for each market. It answers the question: "What is this market telling us, and why?" Each brief contains:
- Market Context — What event is being predicted, what the current probability is, and how it has changed recently
- Key Factors — The primary drivers of the current price, based on available information
- Data Points — Specific statistics, historical comparisons, and quantitative evidence
- Cited Sources — Every factual claim links back to a verifiable source
- Confidence Assessment — How much weight to place on the current market price given liquidity and market quality
What Is a Hunch Take?
The Hunch Take is our contrarian analysis. It deliberately challenges the market consensus by asking: "What could the market be getting wrong?" Each take contains:
- The Contrarian Case — A reasoned argument for why the market price may be mispriced
- Historical Precedents — Examples of similar markets that were wrong
- Blind Spots — Factors the market may be underweighting
- Risk Assessment — What would need to happen for the contrarian view to be correct
How They're Generated
Our AI analysis system works in several stages:
Data Collection — We gather the market's current price, price history, volume patterns, liquidity depth, and category context.
Information Synthesis — The AI examines available information about the underlying event, including news coverage, historical data, and related market movements.
Structured Analysis — Using a framework designed by prediction market researchers, the AI produces a structured analysis that covers all relevant dimensions.
Citation Verification — Every factual claim is linked to a source. The AI does not hallucinate facts — it builds arguments from verifiable data.
Quality Control — Generated briefs are checked for logical consistency, factual accuracy, and analytical rigor.
How to Use Them
Hunch Briefs and Takes are designed to be starting points for your own analysis, not final answers:
- Read both perspectives — The Brief gives you the consensus view; the Take challenges it
- Check the sources — Click through to cited sources for deeper understanding
- Consider the data — Use the probability charts and volume data alongside the written analysis
- Form your own view — Our analysis is one input among many for your decision-making
Limitations
AI-generated analysis has inherent limitations:
- It cannot access non-public information
- It may miss nuances that domain experts would catch
- It reflects information available at generation time and may become stale
- It should never be treated as financial or trading advice
We label all AI-generated content clearly and encourage users to treat it as one perspective among many. The goal is to make prediction market data more accessible and understandable, not to replace human judgment.