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World
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
20.5%
Yes
79.5%
No
$26.30M
Total Volume
$1.33M
24h Volume
$579K
Liquidity
Probability Over Time
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Order Book Depth
PriceSize
19.5¢29,037
18.5¢31,006
17.5¢35,868
16.5¢28,471
15.5¢28,831
14.5¢17,438
13.5¢22,510
12.5¢17,390
PriceSize
21.5¢38,789
22.5¢33,325
23.5¢34,953
24.5¢32,472
25.5¢24,634
26.5¢24,867
27.5¢16,434
28.5¢17,176
Recent Trades
SidePriceSizeTime
YES19.6¢36501:36 AM
YES21.2¢49801:35 AM
YES21.2¢41301:35 AM
NO21.2¢38801:33 AM
NO22.2¢18101:32 AM
YES19.1¢54401:33 AM
YES20.0¢8601:28 AM
YES19.2¢34001:32 AM
YES21.7¢25701:19 AM
NO21.6¢32401:19 AM
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
StatusActive
End Date12/31/2026
Last Updated5/8/2026, 1:36:48 AM
View on PolymarketMarket Intelligence
Category
World
Market Sentiment
Strongly bearish
Liquidity Depth
Deep
Discussion
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