Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Probability Over Time
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This prediction market forecasts whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points after its June 2026 meeting.
The current YES probability of 0.7% signals that market participants overwhelmingly expect no rate hike by June 2026.
A significant resurgence in inflation above the Federal Reserve's target could push the probability of a rate hike higher.
A sustained period of economic contraction or rising unemployment could push the probability of a rate hike lower, potentially even towards a rate cut.
The market will resolve based on the Federal Open Market Committee's statement following its June 16-17, 2026 meeting, with changes rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points.
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Articles
5U.S. Bank
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady as inflation uncertainty rises
1w ago
CNBC
The Federal Reserve is quickly running out of reasons to cut interest rates
1d ago
thestreet.com
Another Fed official signals strong warning on rate path
1d ago
Forbes
Federal Funds Rate History 1990 to 2026
1w ago
Advisor Perspectives
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: April 29, 2026
1w ago
Quotes
2“We're in a good place. We're not going to be in a hurry to cut, and we're not going to be in a hurry to raise.”
“The Federal Reserve is quickly running out of reasons to cut interest rates.”
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Market Details
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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Market Intelligence
Category
Finance
Market Sentiment
Strongly bearish
Liquidity Depth
Deep
Sources
Polymarket
Live prediction market data
Kalshi
Regulated prediction exchange
DraftKings
Sports & event betting
Google News
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X / Twitter
Public sentiment & chatter
Sources are provided for research purposes. Hunch aggregates data from public prediction markets.
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