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Back to Markets
World

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

6.5%
Yes
93.5%
No
$11.5M
Total Volume
$0.16M
24h Volume
$0.25M
Liquidity

Probability Over Time

View Heat Map
02:00 AM02:40 AM05:35 AM10:02 AM02:07 PM03:23 PM04:23 PM05:07 PM05:28 PM05:48 PM06:07 PM06:27 PM06:47 PM0%25%50%75%100%

Overview

This prediction market assesses the likelihood of the United States gaining possession of any quantity of Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, 2026.

The current YES probability of 5.5% indicates that traders believe there is a very low chance of this event occurring.

A key factor that could significantly increase the "Yes" probability would be an official announcement of a seizure or an agreed surrender of enriched uranium by Iran to the US.

The probability would likely decrease further if diplomatic efforts continue without any concrete agreement or if Iran significantly escalates its enrichment activities without US intervention.

The market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government or military officially confirms possession, or if there is a widespread consensus of credible reporting, by the May 31, 2026 deadline.

AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.

Order Book Depth

Estimated from liquidity
PriceSize
5.5¢18,349
4.5¢14,139
3.5¢15,362
2.5¢12,062
1.5¢9,165
1.0¢9,383
1.0¢6,788
1.0¢7,715
PriceSize
7.5¢14,206
8.5¢14,108
9.5¢14,725
10.5¢13,481
11.5¢11,626
12.5¢7,643
13.5¢8,308
14.5¢6,293

Recent Trades

Simulated activity
SidePriceSizeTime
No5.7¢32906:51 PM
Yes4.7¢52806:50 PM
No6.2¢7006:47 PM
Yes8.0¢13006:46 PM
No7.2¢24806:48 PM
Yes6.0¢22506:44 PM
No6.8¢53306:39 PM
No8.4¢47906:41 PM
Yes5.5¢27606:37 PM
Yes8.5¢11606:42 PM

Price Alerts

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Threshold:±5%
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Market Details

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

StatusActive
End Date5/31/2026
Last Updated5/13/2026, 6:47:43 PM

Market Intelligence

Category

World

Market Sentiment

Strongly bearish

Liquidity Depth

Deep

Discussion

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