Sports Betting Probability Engine
Real-time odds aggregation across platforms
A cross-platform probability engine that aggregates odds from Polymarket, DraftKings, and Kalshi to identify arbitrage opportunities and provide the most accurate real-time probabilities for major sporting events.
The Challenge
Sports betting odds vary significantly across platforms, creating both confusion for bettors and arbitrage opportunities. No single platform provides the 'true' probability of an outcome. We needed to aggregate odds from multiple sources and normalize them into a single, reliable probability estimate.
Our Approach
- Built connectors to Polymarket, DraftKings, and Kalshi APIs for real-time odds ingestion
- Developed a normalization algorithm that converts different odds formats into unified probabilities
- Created an arbitrage detection engine that identifies when combined probabilities across platforms sum to less than 100%
- Implemented live game data integration to adjust probabilities within 2 seconds of score changes
- Built a comparison UI showing odds from all platforms side-by-side with highlighted discrepancies
The Solution
The engine processes live odds from three major platforms simultaneously, normalizes them into comparable probabilities, and presents them in a unified interface. When discrepancies exceed a configurable threshold, the system flags potential arbitrage opportunities. During live games, the engine adjusts probabilities in near-real-time based on score changes and game events.
Results
- Identified 127 arbitrage opportunities in the first quarter of operation
- Sub-2-second latency for odds updates during live events
- Tracked 500+ sporting events per month across all major leagues
- Average arbitrage profit margin of 2.3% when opportunities were identified
- 99.9% data accuracy through multi-source validation