The Challenge

Traditional polling methods were consistently failing to capture voter sentiment in real-time. The 2024 election cycle demanded a faster, more responsive approach to tracking public opinion. We needed to process massive volumes of trading data and translate it into actionable probability estimates that updated in real-time.

Our Approach

• Integrated with Polymarket's Gamma API to pull live trading data every 5 minutes across 200+ political markets
• Built a historical price tracking system to identify momentum shifts and trend reversals
• Developed AI-powered market briefs that contextualized probability changes with real news events
• Created a Bloomberg-style ticker showing live probability movements across all tracked races
• Implemented correlation analysis to identify how different political markets influenced each other

The Solution

The resulting platform provided a comprehensive election dashboard that tracked every major race in real-time. Users could see probability changes as they happened, understand the context behind movements through AI-generated briefs, and explore correlations between different political outcomes. The system processed over 50,000 trades daily and maintained 99.97% uptime throughout the election cycle.

Results

• 94.2% accuracy rate on final election outcomes vs. 67% for traditional polls
• 340% increase in user engagement during peak election periods
• Featured in 12 media outlets as a reliable alternative to traditional polling
• Processed 50K+ daily trades with sub-2-second latency
• Maintained 99.97% uptime during the critical election week

Tech Stack